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Win, Place and Show

A betting person's guide to the election By Will Harper METRO MET WITH a dozen or so local political consultants, campaign managers, pollsters and soothsayers to craft betting lines for this year's competitive local primary races. The list below is the product of highly sophisticated analyses, hunches and pure speculation. Of course, this guide is for recreational purposes only, unless you happen to be at Bay 101 or across state lines. San Jose Mayor Ron Gonzales -5 (favorite) Pat Dando +5 (underdog) Over/Under (Select whether candidate will get more or fewer percentage points than number below) Gonzales 42% Dando 39% Napoli 16% Chew 4% Miscellany: Who will score more points--Pat Dando in the primary or Michael Jordan in Game 4 of the NBA finals? Will Dennis Rodman pull more rebounds in Game 4 of the NBA finals than Kathy Napoli's percentage of the vote? The Skinny: Our experts overwhelmingly predicted that Gonzales will beat Dando, citing the fact that he's a Democrat in a Democratic town. Nevertheless, we like the dandy Republican prayer-breakfast lady to cover the spread. She's a cinch to kick butt in her suburban digs of Almaden Valley, an area which always has a huge turnout. And she'll split Willow Glen with Gonzales. The primary's conservative, low turnout favors her, too. San Jose District 1 Chuck Gillingham -5 1/2 Linda LeZotte +5 1/2 Odds that Gillingham will win outright in the primary: 3-1 Over/Under Gillingham 47% LeZotte 41% The Skinny: This is a relatively conservative district. Gillingham's a Republican facing a liberal Democrat in LeZotte. He's also got impressive name ID., a six-shooter and a badge. But he's also a lazy campaigner. LeZotte has been walking the district for nearly two months; she's also got Mayor Susan Hammer behind her. We don't see an upset in the primary, but if LeZotte can force a November runoff, watch out. San Jose District 3 Tony West -1 1/2 Cindy Chavez +1 1/2 Over/Under Moreno/Reynolds/Wall combined 30% The Skinny: A close matchup between the front-runners, West and Chavez. The Chavez camp's very confident; she's the only woman in the race and has union foot soldiers walking the district for her. But Ray Moreno takes votes away from her among Latinos, and the more conservative turnout in the primary slightly favors West. This one's definitely headed for a runoff. [ San Jose | Metroactive Central | Archives ]